Centre for Environmental Rights – Advancing Environmental Rights in South Africa

The application form requested access to the following records –

1. All records prepared by or on behalf of the Department of Energy reflecting the tariff  implications of:
   1. The DoE’s preferred base case for the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)
   2. The least cost unconstrained IRP scenario requested by the Ministerial Advisory Council on Energy in its 31 October 2016 report

2. All technical reports – and all updates thereto – which underpin the energy modelling and have been used as inputs to the current IRP/IEP process, including:
   1. Annexure A  – Technical Report  – Demand Modelling Report (used as input into the 2013 IRP/IEP process)
   2. Annexure A: Part 2 –  Technical Report on Model Output – Optimisation Model Output  (used as input into the 2013 IRP/IEP process)
   3. Annexure B  – Model Input and Assumptions: Optimisation Model (used as input into the 2013 IRP/IEP process
   4. Annexure A – “Forecasts for electricity demand in South Africa (2014 – 2050) using the CSIR sectoral regression model”

3. Any further or other plans and reports used to prepare the Integrated Resource Plan Update Assumptions, Base Case Results and Observations (Revision 1 – November 2016).

On 11 October 2017, following a call with the Department of Energy, we were informed that our request was “too broad” and to facilitate access it would be in our interests to narrow its scope. In light of this, we restructured our request and sought unrestricted access to:

1. Detailed input assumptions sheets for all IRP scenarios; which include the actual Excel sheets that indicate which inputs have been used in the IRP model. Such inputs are for example (for each technology):
   1. Overnight cost (R/kW)
   2. CAPEX (R/kW), which includes the IDC (Interest During Construction) on top of overnight cost and is the final model input
   3. Fixed Operations and Maintenance Cost (FOM, R/kW/yr),
   4. Variable Operations and Maintenance Cost (VOM, R/MWh),
   5. Fuel cost (R/GJ),
   6. Heat rate (kJ/kWh),
   7. CO2 emission factor (kg/MWh),
   8. Water usage (l/MWh),  etc.
   9. For solar PV and wind the input profiles that have been used must be made available
   10. For all technologies which have assumed future cost reductions, the above parameters (CAPEX, FOM, VOM, etc.) need to be made available for every year until 2050
   11. For all technologies, assumed capacity factors.

2. Further input assumptions which need to provided in detailed Excel format are:
   1. Energy demand forecast in TWh/yr for each year
   2. Peak demand forecast in GW for each year
   3. Actual hourly demand profile that went into the model for a couple of years from today to 2050, for example 2020, 2025, 2030, 2040 and 2050 (a. and b. can then be derived from that)

3. Detailed output sheets for all The information below we need for each scenario. Which include the actual Excel sheets which that contain information which reflects the:
   1. Installed capacity in GW in each year for each technology
   2. Energy produced in GWh/yr in each year from each technology
   3. Wind/solar energy curtailed in GWh/yr (if any)
   4. Capacity additions in GW/yr in each year for each technology
   5. Capacity decommissioning in GW/yr in each year for each technology
   6. Resulting total system cost in bR/yr in each year, broken down into CAPEX-related cost, FOM, VOM and fuel for each technology
   7. Resulting average electricity tariff in each year
   8. Total CO2 emissions per year
   9. Total water consumption per year
   10. Actual hourly supply profile for each technology for a couple of years from today to 2050, for example 2020, 2025, 2030, 2040 and 2050 (a. and b. can then be derived from that)

4. Constraints on the model (if any constraints have been put on the model) must be documented and explained.
   1. Annual new-build limits for renewables in MW/yr
   2. Explanation for new-build limits for renewables, which could include studies such as
      1. Detailed grid studies (technical, cost)
      2. Detailed land requirement studies (e.g. strategic environmental assessments)
      3. Detailed industry capacity and supply chain studies

5. Additional questions related to the modelling of transportation fuels (petrol and diesel) demand and supply. Particularly the “model assumptions” as to:
   1. Base case bulk freight demand and projected growth in bulk freight (in ton-kilometers); base case and projected split between rail and road bulk freight
   2. Base case general freight demand and projected growth in general freight (in ton-kilometers); base case and projected split between rail and road general freight
   3. Base case and projected change in modal split between road and rail freight transport
   4. Base case and projected growth in passenger-kms; base case and projected passenger-km split between passenger vehicle technologies (petrol/ diesel, by fuel consumption class rather than engine capacity class; hybrid; EV); base case fuel (petrol diesel) efficiency for each technology and projected improvements in fuel efficiency, for each technology
   5. Base case and projected split (in passenger-kms) between different modes of public transport – passenger rail, BRT (Bus Rapid Transport) and mini-bus taxi; base case and projected average energy efficiencies, as energy units per passenger-km, for each mode of public transport
   6. Projected passenger shifts between different transport modes, from private passenger vehicle to one or other mode of public transport

6. A compilation of consolidated comments received on the IRP